La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Aug 15 · 17:00 · Real Oviedo vs Granada
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 41%
A 31% away win. The market says 20%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo41%54%−13
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Granada31%20%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 80% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 72% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
LossDrawLossLossLoss
- May 23 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-1
- May 14 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- May 10 · v Getafe (H)0-0
- May 3 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
Granada
WinLossLossLossLoss
- May 30 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-2
- May 24 · at Mirandés (A)1-3
- May 16 · v Burgos (H)0-1
- May 10 · at Córdoba (A)0-1
- May 1 · at Real Zaragoza (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Granada |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.