La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Aug 22 · 15:00 · Real Oviedo vs Leganés
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 45%
A 30% away win. The market says 20%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo45%50%−5
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Leganés30%20%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 40% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 45% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 80% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 71% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 15 · v Granada (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
- May 17 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-1
- May 14 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- May 10 · v Getafe (H)0-0
Leganés
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Aug 16 · at Girona FC (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Mirandés (H)1-0
- May 24 · at Cádiz (A)0-3
- May 18 · v Huesca (H)0-0
- May 10 · v Racing Santander (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Leganés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.