La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Dec 5 · 20:00 · Real Oviedo vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 63%
We make it 44% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo63%36%+27
OursMarket
Draw23%32%−9
OursMarket
Mallorca15%32%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 37% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 68% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 64% | −27 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 68% | +9 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 53% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Nov 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-2
- Nov 23 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)0-0
- Nov 9 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
- Nov 3 · v Osasuna (H)0-0
- Oct 25 · at Girona (A)3-3
Mallorca
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Dec 2 · at Numancia (A)3-2
- Nov 29 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Nov 22 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Nov 9 · v Getafe (H)1-0
- Nov 2 · at Real Betis (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.