La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Jan 10 · 13:00 · Real Oviedo vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Real Betis win · 49%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo28%23%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Real Betis49%49%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 77% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 32% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Jan 4 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Celta de Vigo (H)0-0
- Dec 14 · at Sevilla (A)0-4
- Dec 5 · v Mallorca (H)0-0
- Nov 29 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-2
Real Betis
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 4 · at Real Madrid (A)1-5
- Dec 21 · v Getafe (H)4-0
- Dec 18 · at Real Murcia (A)2-0
- Dec 15 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
- Dec 11 · at Dinamo Zagreb (A)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-6-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.