La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Sep 27 · 19:00 · Real Oviedo vs Sporting Gijón
Likeliest: Real Oviedo win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Oviedo45%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Sporting Gijón22%24%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 47% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Oviedo
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 20 · at CE Sabadell (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · at Real Valladolid (A)3-0
- Sep 6 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Albacete Balompié (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Leganés (H)0-1
Sporting Gijón
WinWinLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · at FC Andorra (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v CD Eldense (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Girona FC (H)0-2
- Aug 28 · at CD Tenerife (A)1-0
- Aug 23 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Oviedo | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 10% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.