Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Wed, Aug 12 · 01:30 · Real Salt Lake vs FC Juárez
Likeliest: Real Salt Lake win · 49%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Salt Lake49%52%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
FC Juárez26%24%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 62% | −18 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 62% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 68% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Salt Lake
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Aug 9 · v Atlante FC (H)4-0
- Aug 5 · at Tigres UANL (A)1-1
- Aug 2 · at St.Louis City (A)1-1
- Jul 26 · at Portland Timbers (A)1-2
- Jul 23 · at Los Angeles FC (A)1-3
FC Juárez
LossLossLossWinWin
- Aug 8 · at Vancouver Whitecaps (A)3-1
- Aug 5 · at Minnesota United (A)2-1
- Aug 1 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-5
- Jul 25 · at CD Guadalajara (A)0-1
- Jul 18 · v Club Puebla (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Salt Lake | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.