Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 01:30 · Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Likeliest: Real Salt Lake win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Salt Lake49%52%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
San Jose Earthquakes26%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Salt Lake
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Philadelphia Union (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v New England Revolution (H)3-0
- Sep 24 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)0-2
- Sep 20 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · v New York City FC (H)0-2
San Jose Earthquakes
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Colorado Rapids (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Los Angeles FC (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Houston Dynamo (H)1-0
- Sep 10 · at San Diego FC (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Real Salt Lake | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-1-8 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.