Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 01:30 · Real Salt Lake vs St.Louis City
Likeliest: St.Louis City win · 39%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Salt Lake34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
St.Louis City39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Salt Lake
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)3-1
- Oct 15 · v San Jose Earthquakes (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Philadelphia Union (A)1-2
- Sep 27 · v New England Revolution (H)3-0
- Sep 24 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)0-2
St.Louis City
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Minnesota United (A)2-3
- Oct 15 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · v LA Galaxy (H)6-2
- Sep 30 · at New York Red Bulls (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Toronto FC (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Salt Lake | St.Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.