La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 · Real Sociedad B vs Almería
Likeliest: Almería win · 49%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad B24%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Almería49%47%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad B
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Celta Vigo B (A)1-4
- Oct 4 · v Granada (H)2-3
- Sep 26 · at AD Ceuta (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Mallorca (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at FC Andorra (A)3-1
Almería
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v Leganés (H)3-0
- Oct 3 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Celta Vigo B (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Córdoba (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad B | Almería |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.