La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Sep 19 · 12:00 · Real Sociedad B vs Mallorca
Likeliest: Mallorca win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the away win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad B21%24%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Mallorca51%49%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad B
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Sep 12 · at FC Andorra (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v CD Tenerife (H)1-1
- Aug 31 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · at Albacete Balompié (A)2-1
- Aug 14 · v CD Castellón (H)0-1
Mallorca
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v CE Sabadell (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at CD Eldense (A)0-0
- Aug 30 · v AD Ceuta (H)3-0
- Aug 24 · at Granada (A)0-2
- Aug 15 · v Real Valladolid (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad B | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.