Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Mar 4 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 42%
We make it 60% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad42%43%0
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−5
OursMarket
Athletic Club34%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 59% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Feb 28 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-3
- Feb 14 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Feb 11 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- Feb 7 · v Elche (H)3-1
Athletic Club
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Feb 28 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Levante (H)4-2
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.