La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 4 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Atlético Madrid win · 45%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad32%24%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid45%49%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 47% | +15 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 51% | +12 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 76% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 33% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Dec 20 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Eldense (A)2-1
- Dec 12 · v Girona (H)1-2
- Dec 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Dec 3 · at Reddis (A)2-0
Atlético Madrid
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 21 · at Girona (A)3-0
- Dec 17 · at Atlético Baleares (A)3-2
- Dec 13 · v Valencia (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · at PSV (A)3-2
- Dec 6 · at Athletic Club (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.