La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Sep 13 · 19:00 · Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 41%
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad31%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
Atletico Madrid41%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 62% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 7 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Aug 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
Atletico Madrid
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Sep 9 · at Liverpool (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Athletic Club (A)0-3
- Aug 29 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- Aug 19 · v Málaga (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.