Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Sep 17 · 19:00 · Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad33%35%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Bournemouth39%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 13 · v Atletico Madrid (H)0-3
- Sep 7 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
Bournemouth
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · v Lincoln City (H)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 3-6-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.