La Liga (Spain) · Thu, Sep 3 · 19:00 · Real Sociedad vs Celta Vigo
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 45%
A 32% away win. The market says 25%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad45%49%−4
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Celta Vigo32%25%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 75% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 67% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 29 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
- Aug 26 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Aug 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Valencia (H)3-4
Celta Vigo
DrawLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v Athletic Club (H)0-2
- Aug 27 · v Osasuna (H)1-2
- Aug 22 · at Valencia (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Celta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | — |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — |
| Clean sheets | 0% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.