UEFA Women's Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Sep 2 · 17:00 · Real Sociedad vs Chelsea FC
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 43%
We make it 45% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad43%15%+28
OursMarket
Draw24%19%+5
OursMarket
Chelsea FC33%67%−34
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 66% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 33% | +34 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 85% | −28 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 81% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 18% | +38 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
Loss
- Aug 26 · at Chelsea FC (A)2-5
Chelsea FC
Win
- Aug 26 · v Real Sociedad (H)5-2