La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Apr 11 · 12:00 · Real Sociedad vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 20%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad51%55%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés25%20%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 80% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 73% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
WinLossWinLossWin
- Apr 4 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Mar 15 · v Osasuna (H)3-1
- Mar 7 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-0
Deportivo Alavés
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Apr 5 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Celta de Vigo (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · v Villarreal (H)1-1
- Mar 8 · at Valencia (A)2-3
- Feb 27 · at Levante (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Real Sociedad form·Deportivo Alavés form·Head-to-head record