La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:15 · Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad57%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Sep 20 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Sep 17 · v Bournemouth (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v Atletico Madrid (H)0-3
- Sep 7 · at Elche (A)3-2
- Sep 3 · v Celta Vigo (H)0-0
Deportivo La Coruña
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v Sevilla (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Getafe (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- Aug 30 · v Valencia (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-5-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.