La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Feb 7 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs Elche
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 60%
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad60%57%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%24%−2
OursMarket
Elche18%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 43% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 4 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Jan 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
Elche
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Jan 31 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-3
- Jan 23 · at Levante (A)2-3
- Jan 19 · v Sevilla (H)2-2
- Jan 14 · at Real Betis (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · at Valencia (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.