La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 29 · 17:00 · Real Sociedad vs Espanyol
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 53%
We make it 55% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad53%50%+3
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Espanyol22%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Aug 26 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
- Aug 21 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
- May 23 · at Espanyol (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Valencia (H)3-4
- May 14 · at Girona (A)1-1
Espanyol
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 22 · v Real Madrid (H)1-2
- Aug 16 · v Levante UD (H)3-0
- May 23 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- May 17 · at Osasuna (A)2-1
- May 13 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.