La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Jan 18 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 40%
A 40% home win. The market says 21%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad40%21%+19
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
FC Barcelona37%58%−21
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 68% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 42% | +21 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 79% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 27% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Jan 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Jan 9 · at Getafe (A)2-1
- Jan 4 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Eldense (A)2-1
FC Barcelona
WinWinWinWinWin
- Jan 15 · at Racing Santander (A)2-0
- Jan 3 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Dec 21 · at Villarreal (A)2-0
- Dec 16 · at Guadalajara (A)2-0
- Dec 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 9-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.