La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Apr 22 · 18:00 · Real Sociedad vs Getafe
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 52%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 39%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad52%45%+7
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−6
OursMarket
Getafe23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 39% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 65% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-3
- Apr 4 · v Levante (H)2-0
- Mar 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Mar 15 · v Osasuna (H)3-1
Getafe
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 13 · at Levante (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Athletic Club (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · at Espanyol (A)2-1
- Mar 14 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Real Betis (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.