La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Dec 12 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs Girona
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 62%
A 62% home win. The market says 55%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad62%55%+7
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
Girona17%20%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 80% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 45% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 73% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Dec 6 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Dec 3 · at Reddis (A)2-0
- Nov 30 · v Villarreal (H)2-3
- Nov 22 · at Osasuna (A)3-1
- Nov 7 · at Elche (A)1-1
Girona
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Dec 7 · at Elche (A)0-3
- Dec 3 · at Ourense CF (A)1-2
- Nov 30 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at Real Betis (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.