La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 17:30 · Real Sociedad vs Levante UD
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad57%55%+2
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Levante UD20%21%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Málaga (A)5-2
- Oct 15 · at Royale Union Saint-Gilloise (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Valencia (A)3-2
- Sep 17 · v Bournemouth (H)1-2
Levante UD
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 16 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Oct 12 · v Sevilla (H)3-3
- Sep 20 · at Villarreal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Barcelona (H)2-4
- Sep 6 · at Málaga (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.