Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Tue, Jan 13 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 44%
We make it 61% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad44%51%−8
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Osasuna32%21%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 42% | +19 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 46% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 79% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 49% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 71% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Jan 9 · at Getafe (A)2-1
- Jan 4 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · at Levante (A)1-1
- Dec 16 · at Eldense (A)2-1
- Dec 12 · v Girona (H)1-2
Osasuna
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Jan 10 · at Girona (A)0-1
- Jan 3 · v Athletic Club (H)1-1
- Dec 20 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-0
- Dec 17 · at Huesca (A)4-2
- Dec 13 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.