La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 15 · 20:00 · Real Sociedad vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 51%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad51%50%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−5
OursMarket
Osasuna27%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 47% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 68% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Mar 7 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-3
- Mar 4 · v Athletic Club (H)1-0
- Feb 28 · at Mallorca (A)1-0
- Feb 21 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-3
- Feb 14 · at Real Madrid (A)1-4
Osasuna
WinDrawWinLossDraw
- Mar 7 · v Mallorca (H)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Valencia (A)0-1
- Feb 21 · v Real Madrid (H)2-1
- Feb 13 · at Elche (A)0-0
- Feb 6 · at Celta de Vigo (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.