La Liga (Spain) · Sat, May 9 · 19:00 · Real Sociedad vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 49%
A 49% home win. The market says 37%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad49%37%+12
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−4
OursMarket
Real Betis29%37%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 63% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 63% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 50% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- May 4 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-3
- Apr 22 · v Getafe (H)0-1
- Apr 18 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-2
- Apr 11 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)3-3
Real Betis
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- May 3 · v Real Oviedo (H)3-0
- Apr 24 · v Real Madrid (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Girona (A)3-2
- Apr 16 · v Sporting Braga (H)2-4
- Apr 12 · at Osasuna (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.