La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Real Sociedad vs Valencia
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 48%
We make it 55% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad48%44%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Valencia27%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 60% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- May 14 · at Girona (A)1-1
- May 9 · v Real Betis (H)2-2
- May 4 · at Sevilla (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)3-3
- Apr 22 · v Getafe (H)0-1
Valencia
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- May 14 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- May 10 · at Athletic Club (A)1-0
- May 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.