La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Nov 30 · 13:00 · Real Sociedad vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Real Sociedad win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 34%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Sociedad45%34%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−3
OursMarket
Villarreal30%38%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 51% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 62% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 66% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 47% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Sociedad
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Nov 22 · at Osasuna (A)3-1
- Nov 7 · at Elche (A)1-1
- Nov 1 · v Athletic Club (H)3-2
- Oct 28 · at Negreira (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v Sevilla (H)2-1
Villarreal
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Nov 25 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-4
- Nov 22 · v Mallorca (H)2-1
- Nov 8 · at Espanyol (A)2-0
- Nov 5 · at Pafos FC (A)0-1
- Nov 1 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Real Sociedad | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.