La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:30 · Real Valladolid vs CD Eldense
Likeliest: Real Valladolid win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Valladolid49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+1
OursMarket
CD Eldense22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Valladolid
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 12 · v Albacete Balompié (H)5-0
- Oct 4 · at Las Palmas (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v Córdoba (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at AD Ceuta (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · v Real Oviedo (H)0-3
CD Eldense
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Córdoba (H)2-1
- Oct 2 · v Real Oviedo (H)4-1
- Sep 27 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Eibar (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Sporting Gijón (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Real Valladolid | CD Eldense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.