La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 24 · 16:30 · Real Valladolid vs Deportivo La Coruña
Likeliest: Deportivo La Coruña win · 48%
A 28% home win. The market says 18%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Valladolid28%18%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Deportivo La Coruña48%58%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 52% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 42% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 24% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Valladolid
LossWinLossWinLoss
- May 16 · at Racing Santander (A)1-4
- May 9 · v Real Zaragoza (H)2-0
- May 3 · at Las Palmas (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Real Sociedad II (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at FC Andorra (A)0-1
Deportivo La Coruña
WinDrawWinWinWin
- May 17 · v FC Andorra (H)2-1
- May 8 · at Cádiz (A)1-0
- May 1 · v Leganés (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Burgos (A)1-1
- Apr 20 · v Mirandés (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Valladolid | Deportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.