La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:30 · Real Valladolid vs FC Andorra
Likeliest: FC Andorra win · 44%
A 44% away win. The market says 33%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Valladolid32%38%−6
OursMarket
Draw24%29%−5
OursMarket
FC Andorra44%33%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 48% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 67% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 62% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 53% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Valladolid
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Aug 30 · at Cádiz (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Eibar (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Mallorca (A)0-2
- May 31 · at Almería (A)0-1
- May 24 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)0-2
FC Andorra
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Aug 30 · v Eibar (H)0-1
- Aug 24 · at Celta Vigo B (A)2-4
- Aug 15 · v AD Ceuta (H)5-1
- May 31 · at Burgos (A)0-1
- May 31 · at Burgos Club de Fútbol (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Real Valladolid | FC Andorra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 2-0-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.