La Liga 2 (Spain) · Fri, Nov 14 · 19:30 · Real Valladolid vs Las Palmas
Likeliest: Real Valladolid win · 42%
We make it 48% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Valladolid42%41%+1
OursMarket
Draw27%31%−4
OursMarket
Las Palmas32%28%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 38% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 72% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 59% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Valladolid
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Nov 9 · at Cádiz (A)0-0
- Nov 3 · v Granada (H)2-1
- Oct 29 · at Portugalete (A)0-1
- Oct 26 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- Oct 19 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-3
Las Palmas
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Nov 9 · v Racing Santander (H)3-1
- Nov 2 · at Sporting Gijón (A)0-0
- Oct 28 · at Extremadura 1924 (A)1-3
- Oct 24 · at Huesca (A)1-1
- Oct 19 · v SD Eibar (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Real Valladolid | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.