La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:15 · Real Valladolid vs Real Oviedo
Likeliest: Real Valladolid win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Valladolid38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+2
OursMarket
Real Oviedo28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 36% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Valladolid
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v FC Andorra (H)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Cádiz (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Eibar (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Mallorca (A)0-2
- May 31 · at Almería (A)0-1
Real Oviedo
LossDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 6 · v Burgos Club de Fútbol (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Albacete Balompié (A)1-0
- Aug 22 · v Leganés (H)0-1
- Aug 15 · v Granada (H)0-0
- May 23 · at Mallorca (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Real Valladolid | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.