La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sat, May 9 · 16:30 · Real Valladolid vs Real Zaragoza
Likeliest: Real Zaragoza win · 40%
A 40% away win. The market says 27%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Valladolid37%45%−9
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
Real Zaragoza40%27%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 48% | +20 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 73% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 55% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 63% | −15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Valladolid
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- May 3 · at Las Palmas (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Real Sociedad II (H)1-0
- Apr 19 · at FC Andorra (A)0-1
- Apr 13 · v SD Eibar (H)0-0
- Apr 4 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)0-1
Real Zaragoza
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- May 1 · v Granada (H)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Huesca (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Ceuta (H)2-2
- Apr 11 · at Córdoba (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Mirandés (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Real Valladolid | Real Zaragoza |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.