La Liga 2 (Spain) · Sun, May 31 · 16:30 · Real Zaragoza vs Málaga
Likeliest: Málaga win · 46%
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Real Zaragoza29%23%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−4
OursMarket
Málaga46%49%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 77% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 31% | +7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Real Zaragoza
LossLossLossLossDraw
- May 24 · at Las Palmas (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Sporting Gijón (H)1-3
- May 9 · at Real Valladolid (A)0-2
- May 1 · v Granada (H)0-1
- Apr 26 · at Huesca (A)0-1
Málaga
WinWinWinDrawDraw
- May 24 · v Racing Santander (H)1-1
- May 24 · v Racing de Santander (H)1-1
- May 16 · at Ceuta (A)4-1
- May 9 · v Sporting Gijón (H)2-1
- May 2 · at SD Eibar (A)4-2
| Last 10 games | Real Zaragoza | Málaga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.