Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan
Likeliest: AC Milan win · 56%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 56% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Red Bull Salzburg20%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
AC Milan56%52%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 48% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 80% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 27% | 31% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg
WinDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at Levski Sofia (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at SV Ried (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)5-1
AC Milan
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 11 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Juventus (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Como (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Lecce (H)3-0
- Sep 16 · v Benfica (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Red Bull Salzburg | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.