Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Oct 18 · 12:30 · Red Bull Salzburg vs SC Rheindorf Altach
Likeliest: Red Bull Salzburg win · 70%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 67%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Red Bull Salzburg70%67%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%17%−2
OursMarket
SC Rheindorf Altach15%16%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 15 · v AC Milan (H)0-4
- Oct 10 · at Grazer AK 1902 (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Sep 17 · at Levski Sofia (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at SV Ried (A)1-1
SC Rheindorf Altach
LossLossLossLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Wolfsberger AC (H)3-0
- Sep 19 · at SC Austria Lustenau (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Grazer AK 1902 (H)1-2
- Aug 29 · at LASK (A)0-3
- Aug 22 · v TSV Hartberg (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Red Bull Salzburg | SC Rheindorf Altach |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 2-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 38% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 13% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.