Austrian Bundesliga (Austria) · Sun, Sep 20 · 15:00 · Red Bull Salzburg vs SK Sturm Graz
Likeliest: Red Bull Salzburg win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Red Bull Salzburg58%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw21%22%−1
OursMarket
SK Sturm Graz22%21%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 17 · at Levski Sofia (A)1-0
- Sep 11 · at SV Ried (A)1-1
- Sep 2 · v SK Rapid Wien (H)5-1
- Aug 30 · v Austria Wien (H)4-1
- Aug 27 · v Mjällby (H)3-0
SK Sturm Graz
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 16 · v Stade Rennais (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v LASK (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v SC Austria Lustenau (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · v SC Rheindorf Altach (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Red Bull Salzburg | SK Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-0 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.