Ligue 2 (France) · Mon, Sep 14 · 18:45 · Red Star FC vs Metz
Likeliest: Red Star FC win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Red Star FC39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Metz32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Red Star FC
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- Sep 4 · at Stade Lavallois (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · v Stade de Reims (H)1-4
- Aug 21 · at US Boulogne Côte-d'Opale (A)1-1
- Aug 14 · v Sochaux (H)0-0
- Aug 8 · at Nantes (A)1-0
Metz
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Sep 5 · v Rodez AF (H)4-1
- Aug 29 · at Annecy FC (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Stade Lavallois (H)1-1
- Aug 14 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-0
- Aug 8 · v Guingamp (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Red Star FC | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-1 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-5-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.