Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 9 · 18:00 · Red Star vs Montpellier
Likeliest: Red Star win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 51%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Red Star56%51%+4
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−1
OursMarket
Montpellier20%23%−3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 54% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 77% | +3 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 49% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 69% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Red Star
DrawWinLossWinWin
- May 2 · at Amiens SC (A)3-1
- Apr 24 · v Guingamp (H)3-2
- Apr 18 · at Reims (A)2-3
- Apr 11 · v Bastia (H)4-3
- Apr 3 · v Laval (H)0-0
Montpellier
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- May 2 · v Clermont (H)1-2
- Apr 24 · at Amiens SC (A)2-0
- Apr 17 · v Grenoble Foot 38 (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at Annecy (A)0-0
- Apr 4 · v Troyes (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Red Star | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.