Serie C, Girone B (Italy) · Sun, Oct 4 · 15:30 · Reggiana vs Spezia
Likeliest: Reggiana win · 35%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the home win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reggiana35%37%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Spezia34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reggiana
WinLossDrawLossWin
- May 8 · v Sampdoria (H)1-0
- May 1 · at Modena (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Palermo (H)1-1
- Apr 19 · at Calcio Padova (A)0-1
- Apr 12 · v Carrarese (H)2-0
Spezia
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 21 · v Vis Pesaro (H)3-1
- May 8 · at Pescara (A)1-1
- May 1 · v Venezia (H)2-2
- Apr 25 · at Catanzaro (A)2-4
- Apr 18 · v Südtirol (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | Reggiana | Spezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.