Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 25 · 12:00 · Reims vs Nancy
Likeliest: Reims win · 57%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reims57%60%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Nancy20%17%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 56% | −13 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 40% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 78% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reims
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Apr 18 · v Red Star (H)3-2
- Apr 10 · at Laval (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v Boulogne (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Guingamp (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Rodez (H)1-2
Nancy
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 17 · v Annecy (H)1-5
- Apr 10 · at Clermont (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v Saint-Étienne (H)1-1
- Mar 20 · at Boulogne (A)0-0
- Mar 13 · v Le Mans (H)2-4
| Last 10 games | Reims | Nancy |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.