Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, May 9 · 18:00 · Reims vs Pau
Likeliest: Reims win · 60%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 37%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reims60%69%−9
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Pau19%12%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 63% | −14 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 54% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 88% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 40% | 31% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 85% | −9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reims
DrawDrawWinDrawDraw
- May 2 · at Le Mans (A)1-1
- Apr 25 · v Nancy (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Red Star (H)3-2
- Apr 10 · at Laval (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v Boulogne (H)0-0
Pau
LossWinWinLossLoss
- May 2 · v Nancy (H)1-3
- Apr 24 · at Annecy (A)1-5
- Apr 17 · v Guingamp (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at Amiens SC (A)1-0
- Apr 6 · at Le Mans (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Reims | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-6-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.