Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 18 · 12:00 · Reims vs Red Star
Likeliest: Reims win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reims46%49%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%28%−1
OursMarket
Red Star27%24%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 76% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 67% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reims
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 10 · at Laval (A)2-2
- Apr 4 · v Boulogne (H)0-0
- Mar 21 · at Guingamp (A)2-0
- Mar 14 · v Rodez (H)1-2
- Mar 9 · at Dunkerque (A)1-1
Red Star
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 11 · v Bastia (H)4-3
- Apr 3 · v Laval (H)0-0
- Mar 20 · at Clermont (A)1-0
- Mar 14 · v Dunkerque (H)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Saint-Étienne (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Reims | Red Star |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.