Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Jan 24 · 19:00 · Reims vs Saint-Étienne
Likeliest: Reims win · 54%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Reims54%44%+9
OursMarket
Draw22%27%−5
OursMarket
Saint-Étienne25%29%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 54% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 68% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 56% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 73% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 61% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Reims
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Jan 17 · at Troyes (A)1-2
- Jan 3 · v Annecy (H)2-1
- Dec 19 · at Croix Football IC (A)4-0
- Dec 13 · at Red Star (A)0-0
- Dec 8 · v Laval (H)4-0
Saint-Étienne
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Jan 17 · v Clermont (H)1-0
- Jan 3 · at Le Mans (A)0-0
- Dec 21 · at Nice (A)1-2
- Dec 13 · v Bastia (H)2-2
- Dec 6 · at Dunkerque (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Reims | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.