Serie A (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 18 · 22:30 · Remo vs Red Bull Bragantino
Likeliest: Red Bull Bragantino win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Remo28%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Red Bull Bragantino44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Remo
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at Vasco da Gama (A)0-0
- Oct 7 · v Grêmio (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Santos (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · at Bahia (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Flamengo (H)0-1
Red Bull Bragantino
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 13 · v Cruzeiro (H)4-2
- Oct 7 · v Mirassol (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Flamengo (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Botafogo (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Remo | Red Bull Bragantino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.