Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Wed, Aug 5 · 00:30 · Remo vs Santos
Likeliest: Remo win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 26%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Remo41%26%+15
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Santos33%46%−13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 54% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 74% | −15 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 36% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Remo
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Aug 2 · at Santos (A)0-0
- Jul 29 · at Mirassol (A)1-2
- Jul 26 · v Vitória (H)2-0
- Jul 23 · at Corinthians (A)0-3
- May 31 · v São Paulo (H)1-0
Santos
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 2 · v Remo (H)0-0
- Jul 29 · v Universidad Central (H)4-2
- Jul 25 · v Chapecoense (H)2-2
- Jul 22 · at Universidad Central (A)4-1
- Jul 16 · at Botafogo (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Remo | Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.