Ligue 1 (France) · Sat, Dec 13 · 16:00 · Rennes vs Brest
Likeliest: Rennes win · 53%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 54%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes53%51%+2
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Brest23%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 54% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 49% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 68% | +1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 6 · at Paris Saint Germain (A)0-5
- Nov 28 · at Metz (A)1-0
- Nov 22 · v Monaco (H)4-1
- Nov 7 · at Paris (A)1-0
- Nov 2 · v Strasbourg (H)4-1
Brest
DrawLossWinWinWin
- Dec 5 · v Monaco (H)1-0
- Nov 30 · at Strasbourg (A)2-1
- Nov 23 · v Metz (H)3-2
- Nov 8 · at Olympique Marseille (A)0-3
- Nov 2 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Rennes | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.