Ligue 1 (France) · Sun, Mar 15 · 19:45 · Rennes vs LOSC Lille
Likeliest: Rennes win · 42%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Rennes42%42%0
OursMarket
Draw23%28%−5
OursMarket
LOSC Lille34%29%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 52% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 57% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 59% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Rennes
LossWinWinWinWin
- Mar 8 · at Nice (A)4-0
- Feb 28 · v Toulouse (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at Auxerre (A)3-0
- Feb 13 · v Paris Saint Germain (H)3-1
- Feb 7 · at Lens (A)1-3
LOSC Lille
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Mar 12 · v Aston Villa (H)0-1
- Mar 8 · v Lorient (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · v Nantes (H)1-0
- Feb 26 · at Crvena Zvezda (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · at Angers SCO (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Rennes | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.